CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-08-05T16:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-08-05T16:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40388/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1, and NE in STEREO A COR2. Source is the M4.4 flare from AR 14168 centered (N04W07) starting around 2025-08-05T15:50Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Dimming is observed southwest of the flare site in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, and post-eruptive arcades begin to form in the flare location around 2025-08-05T16:50Z. This CME may have been deflected towards the Northwest, as this Active Region is situation to the Northwest of a large coronal hole. CME Arrival: This CME likely had a glancing blow at L1 around 2025-08-08T23:46Z. This was preceded by a CIR starting around 2025-08-08T06:30Z and associated coronal hole high speed stream. Arrival characterized by a rotation in magnetic field components, including Bz reaching approximately -14.8nT. Characterized by a decrease in temperature and no clear change in density during the CME's passage. Solar wind speeds decreased from approximately 560 km/s to approximately 480 km/s, and remained around 480 km/s until 2025-08-09T15:25Z, where coronal hole high speed stream influence likely continued.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-08-08T23:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-08-09T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 95.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
#--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 50806 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Aug 2025, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Aug 2025 10CM FLUX: 162 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Aug 2025 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 022 PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Aug 2025 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 014 A wide Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 537) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, starting from around 17:15 UTC on August 05, lifting off the west limb. It is most likely associated with the M4.4 flare (SIDC Flare 5041) that peaked at 15:53 UTC on August 05. An associated type IV radio emission was detected starting from 15:58 UTC on August 05. Current analysis suggests that an ICME arrival at Earth can be expected, starting from the UTC noon on August 09.Lead Time: 61.45 hour(s)
Difference: -12.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-08-06T10:19Z
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